HomeLearning HubIB DP BiologyD4.2 Stability and change
D4.2

Stability and change

Theme D · Continuity and change · Ecosystems · SL and HL · plus additional higher level

Some ecosystems have persisted, recognizably the same, for millions of years. Others are changing fast, and many of the changes are caused by us. This topic is about what keeps ecosystems stable, how human activities push them towards tipping points, and what can be done — sustainable harvesting, careful agriculture, rewilding. At HL it adds the natural process of change in ecosystems over time: succession.

🎯What you need to be able to do

  • Explain stability as a property of natural ecosystems, and the requirements for it.
  • Explain Amazon deforestation as a possible tipping point, and calculate percentage change in forest area.
  • Describe the use of mesocosms to investigate ecosystem stability.
  • Explain the role of keystone species.
  • Assess the sustainability of harvesting a terrestrial plant and a marine fish.
  • Outline factors affecting the sustainability of agriculture.
  • Explain eutrophication, biomagnification of DDT and mercury, and the effects of plastic pollution.
  • Outline methods of rewilding, using Hinewai Reserve.
  • AHL Explain the causes of ecological succession, changes during primary succession, cyclical succession, and climax communities and arrested succession.

📚The biology

Stability in natural ecosystems

Stability is the ability of an ecosystem to persist, maintaining its structure and functioning over long periods and resisting or recovering from disturbance. Evidence shows that some ecosystems have shown continuity over immense periods:

  • the tropical rainforests of Borneo and the Daintree in Australia are thought to have existed in some form for tens of millions of years;
  • the Namib Desert in southern Africa is thought to have been arid for tens of millions of years, and has many species adapted to it found nowhere else.

Requirements for stability

Supply of energy
A continuous input of energy, usually sunlight, to support producers and all trophic levels.
Recycling of nutrients
Decomposers returning elements to the soil or water, so they are not exhausted.
Genetic diversity
Variation within species allows populations to adapt to change and resist disease.
Climate within tolerance
Temperature, rainfall and other climatic variables stay within the range of tolerance of the species present.

The Amazon: a possible tipping point

A tipping point is a threshold beyond which a system changes rapidly and possibly irreversibly into a different state.

The Amazon rainforest partly makes its own rain. Trees draw water from the soil and release huge quantities of water vapour by transpiration. This vapour cools the surface, drives air flows that carry moisture westwards across the basin, and condenses to fall as rainfall further inland, where it is transpired again. This recycling depends on a large area of continuous forest.

If deforestation removes enough forest, less water vapour is produced, rainfall decreases, the dry season lengthens, and the remaining forest becomes drier and more prone to fire. Beyond some threshold, large areas could change irreversibly from rainforest to savanna. There is uncertainty over where that threshold lies: estimates of the minimum area of forest needed to maintain the rainfall cycle vary, with some scientists suggesting that loss of 20–25% of the original forest could be enough, especially combined with climate change.

The extent of deforestation is assessed by percentage change from the original area:

\[ \text{percentage change} = \frac{\text{current area} - \text{original area}}{\text{original area}} \times 100 \]

Mesocosms

A mesocosm is a small experimental ecosystem used as a model to investigate how variables affect stability — for example the effect of light, temperature, nutrient addition or the removal of a species. Sealed glass vessels are preferable to open tanks, because entry and exit of matter are prevented while energy (light and heat) can still pass in and out, so the system is close to a closed system. Aquatic or microbial ecosystems — pond water with algae, small invertebrates and plants — are more likely to succeed than terrestrial ones. A typical set-up has replicate vessels for each condition, monitored for dissolved oxygen, pH and numbers of organisms over weeks. Living organisms in mesocosms must be cared for and maintained in line with IB experimental guidelines.

Keystone species

A keystone species has a disproportionately large impact on the structure of its community relative to its abundance. Removing it can cause dramatic changes and even ecosystem collapse.

  • Sea otters in kelp forests eat sea urchins. Where otters were hunted out, urchin numbers exploded and grazed the kelp away, turning rich forests into bare “urchin barrens”.
  • Grey wolves in Yellowstone reduce elk browsing; after their reintroduction in 1995, willows and aspens recovered along rivers, with knock-on effects on beavers and birds.
  • Fig trees in tropical forests fruit year-round, feeding many animals during times when little else is available.

Sustainable harvesting

Harvesting a renewable resource is sustainable only if the rate of harvesting is lower than the rate of replacement (by growth and reproduction). Otherwise the population declines.

A terrestrial plant: tropical timber (e.g. dipterocarps or teak)
Sustainability is assessed by surveying the number, size and age structure of trees, measuring growth rates, and setting harvest limits so that no more wood is removed than grows back. Selective logging on long rotations, replanting, and certification schemes such as the Forest Stewardship Council aim to ensure this. Overharvesting leaves few mature trees to produce seed.
A marine fish: Atlantic cod
Sustainability is assessed from fish stock surveys and catch data: population size, the proportion of mature fish, age structure and recruitment of young fish. Quotas, minimum mesh sizes and closed seasons limit the catch. The Grand Banks cod fishery off Newfoundland collapsed in 1992 after decades of catches exceeding replacement, and the stock has still not fully recovered.

Sustainability of agriculture

Agriculture is sustainable if it can continue indefinitely without degrading the land or the wider environment. Factors to consider:

Soil erosion
Bare soil after ploughing or overgrazing is washed or blown away far faster than it forms.
Leaching of nutrients
Rain carries soluble nitrates and phosphates out of the soil into rivers.
Fertilizers and other inputs
Manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer uses large amounts of fossil fuel; phosphate comes from finite mined rock.
Pollution by agrochemicals
Pesticides and herbicides can harm non-target organisms, including pollinators.
Carbon footprint
Machinery, fertilizer production, transport, methane from livestock and rice paddies, and land clearance all release greenhouse gases.

Eutrophication

Eutrophication is the enrichment of water with nutrients, causing excessive growth of algae. When nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are leached from farmland into rivers, lakes and coastal seas:

  1. Algae and other producers grow rapidly (an algal bloom), turning the water green.
  2. The bloom blocks light from reaching plants below, which die.
  3. When the algae themselves die, decomposers (aerobic bacteria) multiply and break down the dead organic matter, using large amounts of oxygen.
  4. This greatly increases the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) — the amount of oxygen used by microorganisms to decompose organic matter in the water.
  5. Dissolved oxygen falls so low that fish and other aerobic animals die, creating “dead zones”.

Biomagnification

Some pollutants are not broken down or excreted, and accumulate in the fatty tissues of organisms. At each trophic level, consumers eat many organisms from the level below, retaining the pollutant from all of them. The concentration therefore increases at each successive trophic level: biomagnification. Top predators receive the highest doses.

DDT
An insecticide, fat-soluble and persistent. Concentrations tiny in water became hundreds of thousands of times higher in fish-eating birds such as ospreys and peregrine falcons. DDT caused birds to lay eggs with thin shells that broke during incubation, and populations crashed until DDT was banned in many countries.
Mercury
Released by coal burning and gold mining. Bacteria convert it to methylmercury, which accumulates up aquatic food chains. Large predatory fish such as tuna and swordfish can carry high levels; it damages the nervous system, as in Minamata disease in Japan.

Plastic pollution in the oceans

Plastics are persistent in the environment because they are not biodegradable: decomposers lack enzymes that break down their polymers. They break up physically into smaller and smaller pieces but remain as plastic for hundreds of years.

Macroplastics
Larger items: bags, bottles, fishing nets. Animals become entangled (seals, turtles, whales) and drown or are injured; others ingest them, mistaking them for food, and die with stomachs full of plastic (albatrosses, turtles eating bags that resemble jellyfish).
Microplastics
Pieces under 5 mm, from broken-down plastic, synthetic fibres and microbeads. They are eaten by plankton, filter feeders and fish, may block or damage digestive systems, carry absorbed toxins, and pass along food chains.

Scientists can influence the actions of citizens when they provide clear information about their findings. Popular media coverage of plastic pollution — especially images of affected marine animals in nature documentaries — changed public perception globally and drove measures such as bans on single-use plastic bags and microbeads.

Rewilding

Rewilding is the restoration of natural processes in ecosystems, allowing them to become largely self-sustaining. Methods include:

  • reintroducing apex predators and other keystone species (wolves in Yellowstone, beavers in parts of Europe);
  • re-establishing connectivity between fragments of habitat over large areas, with corridors so populations can move and interbreed;
  • minimizing human impact, including by ecological management such as removing invasive species or livestock, then stepping back.

Hinewai Reserve on Banks Peninsula, New Zealand, is a well-known example. From 1987, about 1500 hectares of former farmland, much of it covered in gorse (an invasive shrub regarded as a weed), were managed with minimal intervention: grazing animals were removed, and the gorse was left in place rather than cleared or sprayed. The gorse acted as a nurse crop, sheltering native seedlings, which grew up through it and eventually shaded it out. Native forest has regenerated over most of the reserve, and native birds and insects have returned.

Ecological succession AHL

Ecological succession is the gradual, directional change in the species composition of a community over time. It can be triggered by changes in the abiotic environment (for example new land exposed by a retreating glacier, a volcanic eruption or a landslide) and by biotic factors (the organisms themselves change conditions, making the environment more suitable for new species and less suitable for existing ones).

Primary succession AHL

Primary succession begins on bare ground with no soil, such as newly cooled lava or rock exposed by a glacier. A terrestrial example:

  1. Pioneer species such as lichens and mosses colonize bare rock. They tolerate harsh conditions and begin to break down rock, and when they die they add organic matter.
  2. A thin soil forms, allowing grasses and small herbaceous plants to grow.
  3. As soil deepens and holds more water and nutrients, shrubs establish, shading out the smaller plants.
  4. Eventually trees grow and form a woodland.

General principles, which you should be able to illustrate with any suitable example, are that during primary succession there are increases in:

Size of plants
from lichens to trees
Primary production
more biomass fixed per unit area
Species diversity
more niches become available
Complexity of food webs
more interactions between species
Nutrient cycling
more organic matter and decomposers, and a deeper soil store

Cyclical succession AHL

In some ecosystems there is not a single, unchanging endpoint, but a cycle of communities that repeats. On heathland in northern Europe, for example, heather plants go through a cycle: young plants grow into dense, mature bushes; as they age, the centres die and open up; lichens and grasses colonize the gaps; then heather seedlings establish again and the cycle restarts. Kelp forests and some grasslands maintained by periodic fire show similar patterns.

Climax communities and arrested succession AHL

For any specific set of environmental conditions, succession tends to lead to a particular type of climax community, which is relatively stable and changes little until disturbed — in much of the lowland tropics, rainforest; in temperate lowland Europe, deciduous woodland.

Human influences can prevent the climax community from developing: arrested succession.

  • Grazing by farm livestock eats tree and shrub seedlings, so pasture remains as grassland instead of becoming woodland.
  • Drainage of wetlands changes the abiotic conditions so that the natural wetland community, and its succession, cannot proceed; the land is held at an earlier stage or turned to farmland.

✏️Worked example

(a) A region of rainforest originally covered 400 km2. After twenty years of clearance, 310 km2 remains. Calculate the percentage change in forest area, and explain why further clearance could have effects beyond the area cleared.
(b) DDT was measured at 0.000 05 ppm in lake water and 25 ppm in the fatty tissue of fish-eating birds. Calculate the factor by which DDT was concentrated, and explain how this happens.
(c) A fish population of 100 000 grows by 15% per year through reproduction, but 20% of the population is caught each year. Assuming these rates stay constant, estimate the population after 5 years, and state whether the harvest is sustainable.

(a)

\[ \frac{310 - 400}{400} \times 100 = -22.5\% \]

The forest has been reduced by 22.5%. Rainforest trees release large amounts of water vapour by transpiration, which falls as rain further inland. Reducing the forest area reduces this recycled rainfall, so the remaining forest becomes drier, more prone to fire and less able to survive — possibly passing a tipping point beyond which large areas change irreversibly to savanna.

(b)

\[ \frac{25}{0.000\,05} = 500\,000\ \text{times} \]

DDT is fat-soluble and not broken down or excreted, so it is stored in fatty tissue. Plankton absorb it from water; small fish eat large quantities of plankton, retaining all their DDT; larger fish eat many small fish; birds eat many large fish. At each trophic level, the DDT from a large biomass of food is concentrated into a smaller biomass of consumers: biomagnification.

(c) Each year the population is multiplied by 1 + 0.15 − 0.20 = 0.95.

\[ 100\,000 \times 0.95^{5} = 77\,400 \]

The population falls by about 23% in five years. Because the rate of harvesting (20%) exceeds the rate of replacement (15%), the harvest is not sustainable. To be sustainable, the catch would need to be reduced below 15% per year.

Check it. In (a), a loss must give a negative percentage change, and 90 km2 lost out of 400 is a little under a quarter. In (c), the population loses 5% a year, compounded, so after five years it should be somewhat above 75% (simple subtraction of 25%) — 77.4% is right.
“DDT is concentrated because predators eat more.” The key is not the quantity eaten but that the pollutant is retained: it is not metabolized or excreted, so it accumulates, while most of the biomass of the food is respired away. Biodegradable substances do not biomagnify, however much is eaten.

📝Practise

Work through these on paper, then reveal the answer. Questions 5 and 6 are AHL.

1. State four requirements for the stability of an ecosystem.
(1) A continuous supply of energy, usually sunlight. (2) Recycling of nutrients by decomposers. (3) Genetic diversity within populations, so they can adapt to change. (4) Climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall remaining within the tolerance of the species present.
2. Explain what is meant by a keystone species, using an example.
A keystone species has an effect on community structure that is disproportionately large relative to its abundance, so its removal causes major changes and may lead to ecosystem collapse. Example: sea otters in kelp forests eat sea urchins. When otters are removed, urchin populations increase and overgraze the kelp, destroying the kelp forest and the habitat it provides for many fish and invertebrates, leaving urchin barrens.
3. Explain how leaching of fertilizers can lead to the death of fish in a lake.
Nitrate and phosphate fertilizers are leached from farmland into the lake, where they act as nutrients for algae, which grow rapidly (algal bloom). The bloom blocks light, so submerged plants die. When the algae die, aerobic decomposers break down the large amount of dead organic matter, increasing the biochemical oxygen demand. Dissolved oxygen concentration falls so low that fish and other aerobic animals cannot respire and die. This is eutrophication.
4. Outline three factors that affect the sustainability of agriculture.
Any three: soil erosion — ploughing and overgrazing expose soil to wind and rain, removing it faster than it forms; leaching of nutrients from soil, lowering fertility and polluting water; dependence on fertilizers and other inputs made using fossil fuels or finite rock phosphate; pollution by agrochemicals such as pesticides harming non-target species; a large carbon footprint from machinery, fertilizer production, livestock methane and land clearance.
5. AHL Describe the changes that occur during primary succession.
Primary succession starts on bare ground without soil. Pioneer species such as lichens and mosses colonize first, weathering rock and adding organic matter as they die, so a thin soil forms. Grasses and herbs can then grow, then shrubs, and finally trees, each stage changing the conditions (deeper soil, more shade, more moisture) and replacing the previous one. Over time there are increases in the size of plants, primary production, species diversity, complexity of food webs and the amount of nutrient cycling, until a relatively stable climax community develops.
6. AHL Explain how grazing by farm animals can cause arrested succession.
Under the local conditions, succession would normally lead to a climax community such as woodland. Grazing livestock such as sheep and cattle continuously eat and trample the seedlings of shrubs and trees, while grasses, which grow from the base and tolerate grazing, survive. Shrubs and trees therefore cannot establish, so the community is held at the grassland stage and the climax community never develops — arrested succession. If grazing stopped, succession would resume.

🔗Go deeper — other people’s work

These are external resources, not mine. If one stops working, tell me and everything above it on this page still stands.

  • Global Forest Watch — satellite data on forest loss, for calculating percentage change in real regions.
  • Hinewai Reserve — the reserve’s own site, describing its minimal-interference approach to regeneration.
  • HHMI BioInteractive — Some Animals Are More Equal than Others, on keystone species and trophic cascades.