Paper 3: the policy paper
🎯What this page covers
- The structure, timing and marking of Paper 3.
- The calculations that come up again and again, with links to where each is taught.
- How to write the 10-mark recommendation.
- A full practice question on a fictional economy, with a markscheme.
📚The paper
1 hour 45 minutes plus 5 minutes’ reading. Two compulsory questions, 30 marks each: 60 marks. Calculator allowed.
30% of the HL grade.
(a) several sub-parts totalling 20 marks: calculations, definitions, diagrams, short explanations. (b) “Using the data provided and your knowledge of economics, recommend a policy…”: 10 marks.
Timing: about 50 minutes per question: 30 for part (a) and 20 for part (b). Do not overspend on a 1-mark calculation.
Calculations that recur
PED, YED, PES (2.5, 2.6); consumer and producer surplus (2.3); tax incidence, revenue, subsidy cost, welfare loss (2.7, 2.8); revenue, cost and profit (2.11).
Writing the 10-mark recommendation
The command term is recommend: “present an advisable course of action with appropriate supporting evidence/reason”. The markband rewards, in rising order: identifying an appropriate policy; explaining it with relevant theory; supporting it with the data provided; and synthesis and evaluation that weighs its likely consequences and constraints. A reliable structure:
- The problem: state the issue using figures from the data (“inflation of 7.55% is well above the 3% target…”).
- The recommendation: one clear, specific policy (“the central bank should raise its policy rate by 1–1.5 percentage points over six months”), not a list.
- How it works: the theory and a diagram.
- Evidence: why the data suggest it will work here.
- Evaluation: side effects, stakeholders, time lags, constraints in the data, and possibly a complementary policy.
- Conclusion: restate the recommendation and the conditions for success.
✏️Practice question: Sembara
Sembara is a fictional middle-income country; its currency is the sembar (SMB). The data are invented for practice, in the style of recent Paper 3 questions. Allow 50 minutes.
Text. Sembara exports coffee, textiles and tourism services, and imports fuel, machinery and sugar. In 2025 inflation rose above the central bank’s 3% target, partly because the sembar depreciated from SMB 14 000 to SMB 15 400 per US dollar. Unemployment is 6.5%, much of it among former textile workers whose factories closed after automation. The government protects domestic sugar growers with a tariff of $100 per tonne and plans to raise spending on roads by $6 billion.
Exports of goods 48; imports of goods 55
Exports of services 12; imports of services 9
Primary income −6; secondary income +4
Food: weight 35, index 109
Housing: 25, 104
Transport: 20, 115
Other: 20, 102
2024: real GDP $300 bn (deflator 100)
2025: nominal GDP $327.6 bn, deflator 105
World price $400 per tonne. At $400: domestic demand 900 000 t, domestic supply 300 000 t. With the tariff (price $500): demand 800 000 t, supply 450 000 t.
MPS 0.15, MPT 0.20, MPM 0.25
(a) (i) Calculate Sembara’s current account balance in 2025. [2]
(ii) Calculate the weighted price index for 2025 and the inflation rate. [3]
(iii) Calculate real GDP in 2025 and the rate of economic growth. [2]
(iv) Draw a diagram of the sugar market with the tariff, and calculate the government’s tariff revenue. [3]
(v) Calculate the welfare loss caused by the tariff. [2]
(vi) Calculate the multiplier and the eventual change in GDP from the extra road spending. [2]
(vii) Calculate the percentage depreciation of the sembar against the US dollar, and the change in the SMB price of an imported spare part priced at US$4.20. [2]
(viii) Define structural unemployment. [2]
(ix) Explain how the depreciation is likely to have affected Sembara’s inflation rate. [2]
(b) Using the data provided and your knowledge of economics, recommend a policy the government could use to reduce
unemployment in Sembara. [10]
Markscheme
(a)(i) (48 − 55) + (12 − 9) + (−6) + 4 = −7 + 3 − 6 + 4 [1] = −$6 bn (a deficit) [1].
(a)(ii) (35 × 109 + 25 × 104 + 20 × 115 + 20 × 102) ÷ 100 [1] = (3815 + 2600 + 2300 + 2040) ÷ 100 = 107.55 [1]; inflation = 7.55% [1].
(a)(iii) Real GDP = 327.6 ÷ 105 × 100 = $312 bn [1]; growth = (312 − 300) ÷ 300 × 100 = 4.0% [1].
(a)(iv) Diagram [1]: domestic D and S, Pw = $400, Pw + tariff = $500, quantities 300k, 450k, 800k, 900k shown, revenue rectangle. Imports with the tariff = 800 000 − 450 000 = 350 000 t [1]; revenue = $100 × 350 000 = $35 million [1]. (The diagram is the one on 4.2.)
(a)(v) Production loss ½ × (450 000 − 300 000) × 100 = $7.5 m; consumption loss ½ × (900 000 − 800 000) × 100 = $5 m [1]; total $12.5 million [1].
(a)(vi) k = 1 ÷ (0.15 + 0.20 + 0.25) = 1 ÷ 0.60 = 1.67 [1]; ΔGDP = 1.67 × 6 = $10 bn [1] (exactly 6 ÷ 0.6).
(a)(vii) Value of SMB 1 in US$: 1/14 000 → 1/15 400, a fall of 9.1% [1]. Price of the US$4.20 item: 4.20 × 14 000 = SMB 58 800 → 4.20 × 15 400 = SMB 64 680: up SMB 5880 (10%) [1].
(a)(viii) Unemployment caused by a mismatch between the skills or location of workers and the jobs available, arising from changes in the structure of the economy (for example technology or declining industries) [1 + 1].
(a)(ix) Imported goods and inputs such as fuel and machinery become more expensive in sembar [1], raising firms’ costs (SRAS shifts left: cost-push) and consumer prices; exports become cheaper abroad, raising AD (demand-pull); so inflation rose towards the 7.55% measured [1].
(b) Marked with the Paper 3 part (b) markband. A strong answer might:
- Identify the problem with data: 6.5% unemployment, largely structural (former textile workers after automation), while inflation is 7.55%, above target, so demand-side stimulus is risky.
- Recommend: an interventionist supply-side policy: a targeted retraining and job-matching programme for displaced textile workers (for example, subsidized courses in tourism services and machine maintenance, linked to employers), possibly funded partly by the $35 m of tariff revenue.
- Theory and diagram: retraining reduces the skills mismatch, lowering the natural rate of unemployment and shifting LRAS right (diagram), which raises output without adding to inflation, unlike a pure demand stimulus.
- Use of data: growth of 4.0% shows demand is not the main problem; the $6 bn road programme already adds $10 bn to GDP via the multiplier (and raises inflation risk), so further demand stimulus is not needed; a current account deficit of $6 bn argues against policies that raise imports.
- Evaluation: time lags (months to years); cost and opportunity cost; must match courses to real vacancies (tourism is an export sector); older workers may find retraining hard; complement with job search support and regional mobility; the road spending could be timed to employ displaced workers now.
- Conclusion: a well-targeted training programme is the most appropriate policy because the unemployment is structural and inflation is high, provided it is linked to employers and funded sustainably.
📝More Paper 3-style calculations
Each has a fuller treatment on the linked topic page.
1. At a price of $8 a firm sells 5000 units; after a price rise to $10 it sells 4600. Calculate PED and the change in total revenue.
2. A per-unit subsidy of $2 raises output from 10 000 to 12 000 units; the price paid by consumers falls from $15 to $14. Calculate the cost of the subsidy and the price received by producers.
3. Nominal interest rate 6.5%, inflation 7.55%. Calculate the real interest rate and comment.
4. A household earns $30 000 of taxable income. Tax is 0% on the first $10 000, 10% on the next $15 000 and 20% above $25 000. Calculate tax paid and the average and marginal tax rates.
5. The labour force is 12.4 million and 0.93 million are unemployed. Calculate the unemployment rate.
6. Country A can produce 40 tonnes of coffee or 20 machines; Country B 30 tonnes of coffee or 30 machines. Calculate opportunity costs and identify comparative advantage.
🔗Go deeper — other people’s work
These are external resources, not mine. If one stops working, tell me and everything above it on this page still stands.
- Your school’s IB coordinator — official Paper 3 past papers and markschemes.
- Paul Hoang, Economics for the IB Diploma Paper 3 Workbook (Hodder) — many calculation drills.
- IMF Article IV country reports — real policy recommendations built on data, the model for part (b).